Berivan Ekinci, BA
“There could be 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050” (McAllister 2024), “Oxfam: 216 million climate migrants by 2050” (InfoMigrants 2023), “Global warming turns millions into climate migrants” (Yeter 2023). By now we all know about climate change. We know that the sea levels are rising, we know, that the global temperature is increasing, the world is facing more extreme weather and species become extinct. But what happens when the habitat of some populations changes, in some cases becoming uninhabitable? Where do these people go? Will there be mass movements from the Global South to the Global North and will there really be hundreds of millions of “climate refugees”?
First of all, I argue that people affected by climate change-induced displacement should not be described with the term “climate refugees.” Besides, that the United Nations (UN) strongly rejects the term. It is also not recognized by international law because the term simply doesn’t fully apply. Yes, the displacement of many humans might be triggered by climate change but solely among other circumstances. Secondly, “climate refugees” are not included in the Geneva Refugee Convention. Most climate-induced displacement takes place within national borders; according to the rules of the Refugee Convention, only people who are fleeing because of their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion and who must cross national borders because they cannot find protection in their home country receive protection. In this context, the question naturally arises as to whether, in view of the predictions, it would not make sense to include people who must leave their homes due to climate change in the Convention. However, such a change arguably risks weakening the Convention. In view of the resentment that is already spreading in many societies towards refugees, weakening this law would be very problematic.
There are some common flawed beliefs concerning climate-induced displacement that need to be addressed. As already stated, people that are displaced because of climate change are not considered refugees because, conventionally, they usually don’t cross borders. In this context, one of the most common myths is that a big number of people will cross borders and migrate from the Global South to the Global North. But current evidence shows that the majority of the population that is displaced by natural phenomena move within their own country. In 2022, nearly 33 million people had to flee from their homes due to climate disasters. Numbers show, that about 70 percent of them moved to neighboring countries (Siegfried 2023).
Additionally, I argue that migration is simply not available to everyone. There are many people who do not have the financial means to migrate. Although they are exposed to climate impacts, they do not have the opportunity to settle elsewhere due to a lack of wealth or other resources. This is particularly the case in the Global South. In this context we can speak of “Trapped populations”. The UN uses the term in order to refer to those “who do not migrate, yet are situated in areas under threat, […] at risk of becoming ‘trapped’ or having to stay behind, where they will be more vulnerable to environmental shocks and impoverishment. The notion of trapped populations applies in particular to poorer households who may not have the resources to move and whose livelihoods are affected” (IOM 2024).
Another myth is that climate induced migration always happens as a direct answer to extreme weather situations and catastrophes. Indeed, some people flee from effects of extreme weather, but it is not to forget what climate change causes to people’s homes in the long run. It is too easy to attribute the cause of displacement to climate change due to extreme weather conditions. The situation becomes more complex when the effects are gradual. A drought would initially be classified as extreme weather, but if it leads to soil degradation, it can also have existential effects on the economic opportunities of local people. The UN calls climate change a “treat multiplier” because it exacerbates other factors and their impacts, which, in turn, can contribute to displacement. These include conflicts due to dwindling resources such as water, fish or even land. One example is plagues: more precisely, locust plagues. Alexandre Latchininsky from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) claims that there are increasing signs that these will multiply in the future (Seynsche 2021). In 2020, periods of extreme heat combined with extreme rainfall provided perfect breeding and living conditions for locusts. These then migrated in large swarms across West Africa, destroying entire harvests and seriously jeopardizing food security in the region (UNEP 2020). In simple terms, the reason for migration in this case would be food insecurity caused by climate change. One of many phenomena that will multiply in the future. The UN sees this understanding of climate change as key to future action on climate-induced migration (Siegfried 2023).
Finally, I would like to focus on the numbers that can be read in many headlines. At first glance, it quickly becomes clear that scientists do not agree on this. The numbers range from 50 million displaced to one billion. But making these predictions just isn’t that simple. As already explained, it is very difficult to attribute displacement solely to climate change because the connections with other reasons migration are simply too interconnected. On the other hand, this number depends on different factors: (e.g. temperature rise, adaptability of different populations) that have not yet been determined; thus, a prediction cannot really be made reliably.
In conclusion, I suggest that it is important to emphasize on how serious of a problem climate-induced displacement will be in the future. In fact, it already is for people that live in an environment vulnerable to climate change. It appears to me that the topic still brings much confusion to the broad society, starting with the use of an adequate term. In order to contextualize and arrange all the important factors of the topic properly, the field is in need of more comprehensive research. Only if a common ground in research can be found, the media and therefore society will be able to understand the issue. In simple words, climate-induced displacement is becoming a more and more central problem in our globalized world and should not be underestimated. The debate around the topic has been ongoing for a while but it remains diffuse. One thing though is sure, anyone who calls people “climate refugees” has, in my opinion, not only not understood the problem nor put in the work to try to understand the issue.
Bibliography:
InfoMigrants. 2023. “Oxfam: 216 Million Climate Migrants by 2050.” InfoMigrants. https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/51399/oxfam-216-million-climate-migrants-by-2050 (June 1, 2024).
IOM. 2024. “Environmental Migration | IOM, UN Migration | Environmental Migration Portal.” https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/environmental-migration (June 2, 2024).
McAllister, Sean. 2024. “There Could Be 1.2 Billion Climate Refugees by 2050. Here’s What You Need to Know.” zurich.com. https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know (June 1, 2024).
Seynsche, Monika. 2021. “Heuschreckenplagen und Klimawandel – ‘Wir erwarten in der Zukunft mehr Heuschreckenplagen.’” Deutschlandfunk. https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heuschreckenplagen-und-klimawandel-wir-erwarten-in-der-100.html (June 2, 2024).
Siegfried, Kristy. 2023. “Climate Change and Displacement: The Myths and the Facts.” UNHCR. https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/climate-change-and-displacement-myths-and-facts (June 1, 2024).
UNEP. 2020. “Locust Swarms and Climate Change.” UNEP. http://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/locust-swarms-and-climate-change (June 2, 2024).
Yeter, Ada Seko. 2023. “Global Warming Turns Millions into Climate Migrants.” Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/global-warming-turns-millions-into-climate-migrants/3002795 (June 1, 2024).